On the first anniversary of Trump's election as President of the United States, he delivered a speech at the American Business Forum in Florida on November 5 at 1 PM Eastern Time. In his hour-long address, he repeatedly emphasized that the United States must fully embrace crypto assets and declared his intention to make the U.S. a Bitcoin superpower and the global center for crypto assets.
Looking back over the past year, since Trump returned to the White House in early November 2024, U.S. cryptocurrency policy and environment, including Bitcoin's price, have indeed made a 180-degree turn. After Trump's victory last year, the crypto market experienced a concentrated rally, with Bitcoin soaring not only past the $100,000 mark but also reaching as high as $126,000 earlier this year.
Recently, Bitcoin's price has been on a downward trend, even briefly falling below the $100,000 mark, with market confidence eroding like a dull knife cutting flesh, leading to a gradual collapse. One of the most severe crashes occurred on October 11, when the perpetual contract market experienced the largest liquidation in crypto market history, totaling $19 billion. Following that, in early November, the market faced a second wave of liquidation due to increased uncertainty regarding the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy path.
After a week of turmoil, Bitcoin's price has rebounded slightly from recent lows, currently quoted at $100,000, with Ethereum also following Bitcoin's lead and seeing a price increase.
Alright. Let's continue to look at my worn-out four-hour Bitcoin chart.
The Bollinger Bands are opening downwards, indicating a dominant bearish trend. The upper band around $107,000 serves as short-term resistance, the middle band around $103,000 is initial pressure, and the lower band around $99,000 is key support, coinciding with previous lows. The current candlestick is testing the lower band multiple times, showing short-term overselling. If it can hold above the lower band and push the middle band upward, it may signal a bottoming formation. If the price stabilizes above the middle band, the rebound space will open; if it falls below $99,000, it may further drop to the $98,000-$96,000 range.
In the MACD indicator, the fast line is -1595.24, the slow line is -1572.61, and the MACD green histogram is shortening, indicating weakening bearish momentum. The fast and slow lines are nearly converging, which may form a bottom golden cross. If the price stabilizes and moves upward, the golden cross will confirm the rebound, targeting $103,000 to $105,000. If the golden cross fails or the green histogram expands again, the rebound may be aborted.
The KDJ indicator is in the oversold zone, with K line value at 22.13, D line value at 34.14, and J line value at -1.88, showing a low-level convergence with signs of a bottom golden cross. This represents a late-stage decline where bulls are testing the waters. However, if the rebound lacks volume and the KDJ rises above 50 without breaking the trend line, it may result in a false rebound followed by another bottom test. If the golden cross breaks upward past 50, the rebound can continue; if the J value rises and then falls back, risks still exist.
Fibonacci retracement shows the price in the 0 to 23.6 range, with key levels as follows: 0 level at $99,016 as strong support, 23.6 level at $103,119 as the first rebound pressure, 38.2 level at $105,507 as an important target, 50 level at $107,708 as mid-term pressure, 61.8 level at $109,795 as the trend reversal confirmation point, and 78.6 level at $112,679 as the mid-term upward target. If Bitcoin breaks above $103,000 and holds, the rebound target will be $105,500-$107,700; if it falls below $99,000, the bearish trend may continue towards the $97,000 area.
In summary, in the short term (1 to 3 days), the price has tested the $99,000 support multiple times without breaking, and the downward momentum is weakening. The MACD and KDJ indicators suggest a possible rebound, with targets of $103,000 and $105,500. If it breaks above $105,500 with volume, it could challenge the $107,000 trend line. In the mid-term (3 to 7 days), if the rebound fails to break the descending trend line between $105,000 and $106,000, the market will maintain a sideways bottoming pattern. If it falls below the $99,000 support, it may test the $97,000 to $95,000 range.
Based on the above analysis, the following suggestions are provided for reference:
In the short term, consider lightly going long near $99,000, with a stop loss below $98,500, targeting $102,000-$103,000. After breaking the trend line, you can add to your position. In the mid-term, wait for the price to stabilize above $105,000 before entering, to avoid false rebounds.
Giving you a 100% accurate suggestion is not as good as providing you with the right mindset and trend. Teaching someone to fish is better than giving them fish; the suggestion may earn you a moment, but learning the mindset will earn you a lifetime!
Written on: (2025-11-07, 20:30)
(Written by - Master Coin) Disclaimer: Online publication may have delays; the above suggestions are for reference only. Investment carries risks; proceed with caution!
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