Bitcoin's recent break below a key technical level was driven by a cascade of macroeconomic headwinds. Still, these pressures could soon reverse and fuel a rebound, according to popular market analyst Tom Lee, Co-Founder and Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors.
The top cryptocurrency recently broke below its 200-day moving average, a technical indicator watched closely by traders.
The move lower coincided with a period of significant deleveraging within the crypto market, including the major event on October 10th.
“Bitcoin is very sensitive to market liquidity and also perceptions about risk appetite,” Lee told CNBC. “Over the past couple of weeks, I think there have been headwinds building right from the government shutdown to a hawkish Fed cut.”
Lee pointed to the U.S. government shutdown and related Treasury dynamics as key factors that put pressure on risk assets like crypto. This aligns with analysis from other experts who have recently pointed to U.S. dollar strength as a significant macro headwind for cryptocurrencies.
“Headwinds become tailwinds”
Despite the recent selloff, Lee struck an optimistic note for the future, suggesting that “headwinds become tailwinds when you can resolve these things.”
The analyst tempered his views, comparing the current market cleanup to past deleveraging events. “The October 10th deleveraging was the biggest in history, and that means there are still ripple effects being felt even two weeks later,” Lee said. “It's going to take some time for confidence to come back.”
Despite the recent technical weakness, Lee highlighted that broader financial market indicators are signaling a positive outlook. He noted that after stocks are up for six consecutive months, history suggests a flat or positive November, which would support a constructive environment for crypto.
This potential for a rebound is supported by prediction markets, where retail sentiment remains bullish.
On Myriad, launched by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, users put a 64% chance on Bitcoin revisiting $115,000 before it falls to $85,000. The confidence extends to Ethereum, with users assigning a 63% chance that it will hit $4,500 before dropping to $2,500.
Bitcoin and Ethereum were up 1.3% and 2.6% over the past 24 hours, trading at $103,214 and $3,403, respectively, according to CoinGecko.
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