Original Title: "Q4 2025 Bitcoin Valuation Report"
Original Source: Tiger Research
Note: This article was first published on October 27, 2025. On November 6, Tiger Research reiterated its target price of $200,000 amid increased market volatility. The reasons are as follows:
· The U.S. government shutdown has lasted for 35 days, causing short-term pressure—U.S. Treasury TGA liquidity is frozen, and Polymarket predictions show a 73% chance that the shutdown will last until mid-November.
· Record-breaking forced liquidation events have impacted market sentiment—on October 10, the scale of forced liquidations reached $20 billion, affecting 1.6 million traders, and the market cleared excessive leverage, leading to a temporary pullback.
· The fundamentals remain solid, and the long-term upward trend is unchanged—global liquidity expansion, M2 broad money supply exceeds $96 trillion, and institutional investors maintain strategic buying, keeping the Bitcoin target price at $200,000 unchanged. The following are the original content:
Key Points
· Institutional investors continue to accumulate amid volatility—net inflows into ETFs remained stable in Q3, with MSTR increasing its holdings by 388 Bitcoins in a single month, reinforcing long-term investment beliefs;
· Overheated but not extreme—the MVRV-Z index is at 2.31, indicating that valuations are high but not at extreme levels; the clearing of leveraged funds has removed short-term traders, creating space for the next wave of increases;
· Global liquidity environment continues to improve—the broad money supply (M2) has surpassed $96 trillion, setting a new historical high, and expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have increased, with 1-2 more cuts expected within the year.
Institutional Investors Buy Amid U.S.-China Trade Uncertainty
In Q3 2025, the Bitcoin market slowed from the strong growth of Q2 (28% quarter-over-quarter) into a volatile sideways phase (1% quarter-over-quarter growth).
On October 6, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $126,210, but the Trump administration's renewed trade pressure on China caused Bitcoin's price to pull back 18% to $104,000, significantly increasing volatility. According to Volmex Finance's Bitcoin Volatility Index (BVIV), Bitcoin's volatility narrowed from March to September as institutional investors steadily accumulated, but surged 41% after September, exacerbating market uncertainty (Chart 1).
Driven by the resurgence of U.S.-China trade frictions and Trump's tough rhetoric, this pullback appears temporary. The strategic accumulation led by Strategy Inc. (MSTR) is actually accelerating. The macro environment has also played a supportive role. The global broad money supply (M2) has surpassed $96 trillion, setting a new historical high, while the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25% on September 17. The Fed hinted at 1-2 more rate cuts this year, with a stable labor market and economic recovery creating favorable conditions for risk assets.
Institutional capital inflows remain strong. In Q3, net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs reached $7.8 billion. Although this is lower than the $12.4 billion in Q2, the net inflow throughout Q3 confirms the stable buying by institutional investors. This momentum continued into Q4—just in the first week of October, $3.2 billion was recorded, setting a new weekly inflow record for 2025. This indicates that institutional investors view price pullbacks as strategic entry opportunities. Strategy continued to buy during the market pullback, purchasing 220 Bitcoins on October 13 and 168 Bitcoins on October 20, accumulating a total of 388 Bitcoins in one week. This shows that regardless of short-term volatility, institutional investors firmly believe in Bitcoin's long-term value.
On-Chain Data Signals Overheating, Fundamentals Unchanged
On-chain analysis reveals some signs of overheating, but valuations are not concerning. The MVRV-Z metric (market cap to realized value ratio) is currently in the overheated zone at 2.31, but has stabilized compared to the extreme valuation range approached in July-August (Chart 2).
The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) also shows signs of overheating, but has eased from the high unrealized profit situation in Q2 (Chart 3). The Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) reflects the realized profit and loss of investors, and this ratio is very close to the equilibrium value of 1.03, indicating no cause for concern (Chart 4).
The number of Bitcoin transactions and active users remains at similar levels to the previous quarter, indicating a temporary slowdown in network growth momentum (Chart 5). Meanwhile, total transaction volume is on the rise. A decrease in the number of transactions but an increase in transaction volume means that larger amounts of money are being transferred in fewer transactions, indicating an increase in large capital flows.
However, we cannot simply view the expansion of transaction volume as a positive signal. Recently, there has been an increase in funds flowing into centralized exchanges, which typically indicates that holders are preparing to sell (Chart 6). In the absence of improvements in fundamental indicators such as transaction numbers and active users, the rise in transaction volume more indicates short-term capital flows and selling pressure in a high-volatility environment, rather than a genuine expansion of demand.
October 11 Crash Proves Market Has Shifted to Institutional Dominance
The crash on centralized exchanges on October 11 (down 14%) proves that the Bitcoin market has shifted from retail dominance to institutional dominance.
The key point is that the market reaction is markedly different from before. In a similar environment at the end of 2021, panic among retail-dominated markets spread, leading to a crash. This time, the pullback was limited. After large-scale liquidations, institutional investors continued to buy, indicating that they are firmly defending the market's downside. Furthermore, institutions seem to view this as a healthy consolidation that helps eliminate excessive speculative demand.
In the short term, a series of sell-offs may lower the average purchase price for retail investors and increase psychological pressure, potentially exacerbating volatility due to weakened market sentiment. However, if institutional investors continue to enter during the sideways consolidation, this pullback may lay the groundwork for the next round of increases.
Target Price Raised to $200,000
Using our TVM method for Q3 analysis, we derive a neutral benchmark price of $154,000, up 14% from $135,000 in Q2. Based on this, we applied a -2% fundamental adjustment and a +35% macro adjustment, resulting in a target price of $200,000.
The -2% fundamental adjustment reflects the temporary slowdown in network activity and the increase in deposits to centralized exchanges, indicating short-term weakness. The macro adjustment remains at 35%. The global liquidity expansion and continued institutional capital inflows, along with the Fed's dovish stance, provide a strong catalyst for increases in Q4.
The short-term pullback may stem from signs of overheating, but this is part of a healthy consolidation rather than a trend or shift in market perception. The continued rise in the benchmark price indicates that Bitcoin's intrinsic value is steadily increasing. Despite temporary weakness, the medium to long-term upward outlook remains solid.
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