Do not worry about having no friends on the road ahead; on the investment path, there are like-minded individuals. Good afternoon, everyone! I am the King of Coins from the Coin Victory Group. Thank you all for coming here to watch the articles and videos from the King. Every day, I bring you different news from the crypto world and precise market analysis. Let's first dive into the current "contradiction" in the market: everyone sees the risk market rising and thinks it's because the Americans are resolving the shutdown, but in reality, there is not even a consensus in the negotiations. This "good news" is fundamentally unfounded — this step is to correct the common misunderstanding and lay the groundwork for explaining the "real reason for the rise" later.

Click the link to watch the video: https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1du2FBuEwA/

Next, let's break down "why the market is moving": the core issue is not the shutdown negotiations, but rather the change in the probability of the Supreme Court's ruling on global tariffs. The probability of maintaining the tariffs has dropped from a high level to 29%. Here, we need to follow the reasoning: if the tariffs are indeed ruled illegal, the supply chain costs for American companies will decrease, profits and inflation will improve, and industries like technology and semiconductors will directly benefit. Wall Street is actually pushing the market because they smell profit, not because they are thinking of ordinary people.

However, we cannot only talk about the positives; we must return to the macro reality: the ISM manufacturing PMI is still at a low level, and the copper-gold ratio is also extremely low, indicating that the macro environment is still weak. More critically, the Federal Reserve is always "looking in the rearview mirror to make policy." If this continues, the economy is likely to accelerate into recession, and at that time, they may first "dig a hole" and then inject liquidity to save the market — this will also affect Bitcoin: injecting liquidity may cause Bitcoin to rise to a bubble before it bursts, while not injecting liquidity could lead to a correction or even a bear market. We need to clarify both the pros and cons.

Then, let's reinforce the viewpoint by combining it with specific phenomena in the market: a certain exchange's leveraged long positions are clearly in a downtrend, yet they are not cutting losses and are even increasing their positions. Although they made profits in 2024-2025, they were also cut in 2021, indicating that their operations are not absolutely reliable. Therefore, the Coin Victory Group still insists on a "short-term bearish" outlook. Looking at Bitcoin's technical aspects, this drop is almost connected to the 98.2K level from June 22. The area around 99K is a liquidity accumulation zone, like a magnet, and the price is likely to return to test it, so 98K is definitely not a major bottom. If the market makers lack strength during a rebound, they will either break through 98K or hunt for stop losses, so the risks need to be pointed out.

After discussing the judgment, let's provide specific operational advice: first, clarify that in the short term, do not chase the rise. Yesterday's rebound was merely the last resistance of the bulls after breaking through 100K. If you are stuck in a short position, there is no need to panic; it is highly likely to turn positive within 72 hours. However, if you are stuck in a long position, it will depend on luck because both the weekly and monthly charts are under pressure. If there is to be a rebound, we must at least wait for 1-2 daily signals, and at most, it will reach 108.8K; anything above 110K is the ceiling.

Now, let's refine the levels and strategies: for Bitcoin, resistance is at 105700 and 104500, while support is at 102700 and 101600. Currently, on the hourly level, there is a 20MA and trendline providing support, with a long lower shadow. 102.7K is recognized as a short-term bottom, but any rebound without volume is false — breaking the trendline would lead back to 101K-102K, and losing 103K would accelerate the drop because there are no buyers in between. For the bulls to reverse, they must break through 104500 and hold above it. For now, I do not recommend going long; for short positions, look at 104500-105000, with a stop at 105700 and a target of 102700. If that breaks, then look at 101600. Ethereum is simpler; today, resistance is at 3480, and 3570 is a major pressure point. If it can't break through, go short, with support at 3360-3336.

Finally, I want to remind everyone to avoid pitfalls: many people in the crypto world are "performative players," constantly posting screenshots claiming they caught the top and bottom, but in reality, they are just making after-the-fact comments. What truly deserves attention are those trading strategies that are consistent and withstand scrutiny, not those who only shout when the market moves. Therefore, it is essential to observe over the long term and not be deceived by screenshots, distinguishing who is genuinely thoughtful and who is just dreaming.

To learn investment well, you must follow reliable sources continuously; you cannot jump to conclusions after just a few views. The Coin Victory Group is available across the internet under the same name, with free experiences, live broadcasts, and skill teaching in our public account and fan group. Finally, to reinforce the impression, let’s tie together the viewpoint with the phrase: "The crypto world is deep; don’t be a bag holder. Follow the Coin Victory Group and don’t get lost in shorting."

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