Master Discusses Hot Topics:

Last night's rise in the risk market, don't really think it's because the American government shutdown is about to be resolved. Right now, there's not even a shadow of negotiations, and there's no consensus at all. You call that a positive signal? It's laughable.

What truly drives the market is what's happening at the Supreme Court. The probability of maintaining global tariffs under Trump has dropped from a high level to 29%. That's the real stimulus.

If the tariffs are ultimately ruled illegal, the supply chain costs for American companies will drop immediately, profits will improve, and inflationary pressures will ease. Industries like technology, semiconductors, and cross-border manufacturing will be laughing all the way. Don't think Wall Street is looking out for you; they are just smelling the meat.

On a macro level, things are still a mess. The ISM manufacturing PMI is still on the floor, and the copper-gold ratio is as low as malnutrition. If the Federal Reserve continues to only look in the rearview mirror for policy, they will crash the economy into a recession, hitting rock bottom before they come in to flood the market with liquidity.

At that point, will Bitcoin correct or turn bearish? It depends on how big of a pit they want to dig. Optimistically speaking, if the Federal Reserve keeps cutting interest rates and flooding the market, pushing the bottom 90% of the economy up, then Bitcoin will continue to soar until the bubble bursts.

Back to the market, currently, the leveraged long positions on a certain exchange are still increasing. Despite the price dropping like this in recent days, these people are not only not reducing their positions but are actually adding more. You might think they are foolish, but this isn't their first time in this market.

In 2021, they were pressed down and cut like leeks twice, but in 2024 and 2025, they made back their losses twice. Now they seem genuinely eager to make another move. But I don't believe they will definitely win; that's my stance, and I remain primarily bearish in the near term.

As for Bitcoin, this recent drop hit a low around 99K, and from a daily perspective, it is almost connected to the 98.2K low from June 22. The height of the low is close, indicating a liquidity accumulation area. This area is like a magnet; the price will eventually have to come back to lick it.

So, subjectively, I don't think 98K is the bottom; there is still a chance it will revisit that area. Next, we need to watch the market makers. If they suddenly dry up during a rebound, the rebound is likely over, and Bitcoin will either break through 98K directly or experience a wave of stop-loss hunting.

The key point is, in the short term, don't chase the rise. Yesterday's rebound was just a temporary halt in the decline, a last resistance from the bulls after the 100K level was briefly broken. Even if you entered a short position early and are stuck, it's just a matter of time; there's a high probability it will turn positive within 72 hours.

But if you are stuck in a long position? Good luck; if you manage to get out, consider yourself lucky. Because right now, the weekly and monthly charts are pressing down on you, and to truly stop the decline and rebound, we need to see at least 1-2 daily signals. Even if there is a rebound, it will at most touch around 108.8K, and anything above 110K is the ceiling.

On the Ethereum side, today's resistance is at 3480, with 3570 being a major resistance area. If it can't break through, go short. The intraday support is at 3360-3336.

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Level Reference:

Second Resistance Level: 105700

First Resistance Level: 104500

Support Level Reference:

First Support Level: 102700

Second Support Level: 101600

Currently, the 20MA on the hourly level combined with a short-term upward trend line has formed a temporary support structure, with a clear lower shadow. 102.7K is basically recognized by the market as a short-term bottom, but the problem is, the trading volume is not following. Without volume, this rebound is just a mirage.

As long as the short-term upward trend line is broken, the market will have to return to the 101K to 102K range. This area is the real lower buying zone, which is also the position for manual reallocation.

If 103K is lost again, the decline will accelerate because there is a hollow trading zone in between, with no one to catch the fall, and the price will directly drop. The first resistance at 104.5K is the previous high formed by the step-like decline; to reverse the trend, the bulls must first break through and stabilize above this level.

11.6 Master’s Wave Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Not currently referenced

Short Entry Reference: Short in the 104500-105000 range, defend at 105700, target: 102700, if broken, continue to look at 101600

If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than making rash conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot long positions, tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they "always catch the tops and bottoms," but in reality, it's all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don't be blinded by flashy data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!

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