Author: Michael Nadeau

Source: The DeFi Report

Original Title: Has the Bear Market Arrived?

Translation and Compilation: BitpushNews

Since the beginning of this year, both gold and the S&P 500 index have outperformed BTC. However, all seemingly "bullish catalysts" still exist before the end of the year.

Interest rate cuts, regulation, stablecoins, tokenization, liquidity, trade agreements, GDP, earnings reports from the tech giants, large-scale fiscal bills, Trump.

On the surface, the market environment seems decent.

Nevertheless, as market sentiment and fundamentals begin to deteriorate, participants in the crypto market appear to be caught in a stalemate between hope and doubt.

In this report, we aim to penetrate the fog through hard data and market sentiment observations.

Disclaimer: The views expressed are the author's personal opinions and should not be considered investment advice.

Let's get started.

Momentum Data

Moving Averages

Data Source: The DeFi Report, as of November 4, 2025

BTC, ETH, and SOL have all fallen below their 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA). The key number we are watching is BTC's $102,800 (its 50-week moving average). Why? Because in past cycles, when BTC's weekly close has repeatedly fallen below the 50-week moving average, the cycle top has been confirmed.

BTC's long-term 200-week moving average is currently $54,700. If we are heading towards a bear market, we expect BTC's price to eventually converge towards the 200-week moving average (which will continue to rise) at the bottom of the bear market.

Relative Strength Index

Data Source: The DeFi Report, as of November 4, 2025. RSI = 14 periods.

BTC, ETH, and SOL are all approaching "oversold" levels (below 30). Longer-tailed altcoins are already in an oversold state.

In a bull market, this is typically a green light for "buying the dip."

Flow Data

ETF

Data Source: Glassnode, as of November 4, 2025

In terms of net inflows and assets under management, the Bitcoin ETF has become one of the most successful financial products in history.

However, since October 10, the ETF has seen a net outflow of $1.4 billion. But what concerns us is not the scale of the outflow, but the lack of inflow.

As demand weakens, the largest accumulators of Bitcoin seem to be running out of "ammunition"…

MicroStrategy Purchases

Data Source: High Charts, as of November 4, 2025

MicroStrategy currently holds over 641,000 BTC. They purchased 476,000 BTC between October 2023 and July 2025.

This is equivalent to 1.19 times the total issuance of BTC during the same period.

So what about the last three months? They only purchased 12,200 BTC.

For reference, MicroStrategy's BTC holdings are 12 times that of the second-largest BTC treasury company. They account for about 65% of the total "treasury" market.

As ETF demand weakens, and the largest BTC holders seem to be "running out of ammunition" in the short term, what do we see from the long-term holder group on-chain?

Holder Group Data

Long-term Holders

Data Source: Glassnode, as of November 4, 2025

More sell-offs. This is the third distribution wave in this cycle.

Historically, market expansions only begin after long-term holders shift from distribution to continuous accumulation. In this cycle, we have seen this happen twice.

However, if we are entering a bear market, we can see that after the peak of the 2017 cycle, it took 10 months for long-term holders to become net accumulators before BTC prices officially bottomed.

Similarly, after the first peak of the 2021 cycle, it took 9.5 months for BTC prices to officially bottom after long-term holders returned to the market.

In the coming quarters, when we see this shift occur (and when our "fair value" target is hit), we will remind everyone.

Short-term Holders

Data Source: Glassnode, as of November 4, 2025

As long-term holders exit the market, they have transferred their tokens to a new wave of short-term holders.

We believe that when this group of short-term holders eventually capitulates and sells their tokens (some of which will be taken over by new long-term holders), long-term holders will re-enter the market.

Market Sentiment

As mentioned in the introduction, our feeling is that there is still a considerable portion of the market holding onto hope.

Interest rate cuts, regulation, stablecoins, tokenization, liquidity, trade agreements, GDP, earnings reports from the tech giants, large-scale fiscal bills, Trump.

These factors lead many to conclude that the four-year cycle has become a "thing of the past."

Currently, BTC has been in a trend of only rising since January 2023. Every dip has been a correct buying opportunity.

Therefore, it is not surprising that many market participants may find it difficult to shift from a more bullish stance. After all, all narratives still hold.

The market's reaction to Jordi Visser's recent article titled Bitcoin's Silent IPO: Why the Current Consolidation Is Not What You Think reinforces our view on market structure/sentiment.

X Platform

I shared that tweet containing the article link with a hint of sarcasm, and it unexpectedly garnered 2.6 million impressions.

What did the article discuss? It compared Bitcoin's recent consolidation to a "silent IPO"—just early players exiting to build a new bottom. The entire piece carried a tone of "I've seen it all, don't panic, just accumulate."

Although this is more like a bowl of "soul food" rather than data-driven analysis, the market accepted it wholeheartedly. It was as if investors were in desperate need of a psychological massage.

This phenomenon exposes the essence of the current market structure.

What is the key insight? There is still a strong "optimism agent" permeating the market. Investors need "emotional comfort." That article just happened to meet this need, which is probably why it went viral. Who knows, maybe in the end, the market will indeed turn out as the article suggests, but this phenomenon is certainly worth pondering.

Perhaps, at the moment when the market most needs faith support, investors require not only cold, hard data but also a story that can reassure them.

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