Hello everyone, I am Lao Lu. Today marks the third article since my return. Was yesterday's article exciting and powerful? I believe it deserves applause at this moment. If you like my style and articles, feel free to share, like, and forward them to those in need; it would be a great encouragement for me! Yesterday, our thoughts were very clear, and our points were very precise. We were looking for a double breakout of the support levels for both cryptocurrencies, leading to a waterfall effect. So far, I have not been disappointed; Bitcoin has dropped by $4,000, and Ethereum is close to $300. However, in terms of the strength of the breakdown, it is still not enough. Although it has dropped significantly, I still maintain that it is a volatile market, not a one-sided breakdown at the daily level, but rather a periodic adjustment after an upward trend. Once this wave of bearishness is over, the bullish trend will gradually return. Therefore, friends holding spot positions should remain calm; the daily bullish trend has not ended, but please give it time to adjust. Before we officially start the analysis, let’s review yesterday's price movements.

Bitcoin: Yesterday, we were very resolute from start to finish, stating that we needed to watch for a breakdown leading to a significant drop. The technical principle used was very simple and straightforward: the failure of repeatedly tested support levels. Therefore, technical analysis should not be overly complicated; the simplest methods are often the most useful. Some friends have a bunch of technical indicators, looking at this and that, only to conclude that none of the indicators work. In reality, it boils down to a lack of thorough understanding. Of course, while I speak lightly, this is also tied to experience, which comes from day and night of monitoring the market and summarizing insights. Yesterday, Bitcoin's hourly chart showed a continuous decline, breaking new lows during the Asian session, and then continuing to break new lows in the European session. At this point, you need to pay attention to the sudden stretch during the US session, which is definitely a trap for buyers, something we traders often refer to as a "fakeout." Therefore, I urgently reminded everyone at 19:08 last night that after the breakdown, they must lock in profits and cut losses in a timely manner. Sure enough, at 10 PM, the price of Bitcoin was slowly stretched to $108,300, which was meant to lure in long positions from the European and Asian markets before continuing to sell off. Some people ask, "Lao Lu, how do you know these traps?" I want to say that I am not only a trader but also a seasoned veteran, just ahead of most people. We did not hesitate last night and advised everyone to consider $108,400 as a resistance point, continuing to look for a significant drop below! Currently, with a drop of nearly $4,000, how much you can gain depends on your courage. This will be my main trading style this year: focusing on large positions rather than small ones, which also requires significant volatility support. Given Bitcoin's large base of $100,000, even a daily fluctuation of just 2% is quite sufficient and can yield substantial gains!

Currently, after Bitcoin's breakdown, shorting must be aggressive because it has just broken the support level. If a significant rebound occurs, the price will definitely be harder to drop. Continuing with last night's cyclical downward thought process, we should look at the hourly chart for entry points. The recent resistance level is in the range of $106,000 to $106,500, which corresponds to the 0.618 retracement level, and $106,000 is also the previous support level during the decline. Whether a short-term top can form after the current breakdown depends on the effectiveness of this level, so it might be worth being a bit bold!

Ethereum: There is actually no need to elaborate too much, as its movement is completely in line with Bitcoin, just with slightly less decline. Yesterday, I clearly indicated to short around $3,750, with the price peaking at $3,748, making the resistance point very effective. Currently, the price has dropped to a low of $3,459, close to $300, which is still enough, so I won’t repeat myself. Speaking of the current decline, it has already caused panic among most people in the market. It’s not that people lack confidence in the market, but rather in the few coins they hold, and they are uncertain whether the upcoming decline can be sustained. Don’t worry! It’s coming. I expect this wave of decline to find support in the range of $3,340 to $3,280, while for Bitcoin, I expect it to be between $101,000 and $101,300. Due to its large base, the decline will be more pronounced. This morning, Ethereum completed the top-bottom conversion, which is the major support level of $3,640 I mentioned earlier, and it just so happened that it started to drop significantly from $3,640 this morning. However, if the price is to return to this level, it will definitely be harder to drop today. In summary, shorting Ethereum should also follow the aggressive principle, with $3,580 as a small cycle resistance, continuing to look for a cyclical decline.

Difference: Currently, after Bitcoin's significant drop on October 10, it formed a second rebound low at $103,450, and today it just so happens to form a temporary support at this level. Therefore, I believe Bitcoin's shorts should be slightly more conservative, as its pattern is stronger than Ethereum's. Thus, during the decline, Bitcoin is accelerating, which means it is catching up with Ethereum's downward pattern, referred to as a "catch-up decline." Looking back at Ethereum, it has already broken the previous second rebound low of $3,640 and completed the pattern conversion this morning, so shorts can be a bit more aggressive. This is the difference in thought processes.

Short Bitcoin around $105,800

Short Ethereum around $3,570

Today: Written on the evening of November 4, 2025, at 19:49 by Lao Lu. Please note that all strategies are effective once and should not be reused! Follow my WeChat public account: Please call me Lao Lu from the crypto circle, for daily updates.

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