I want to share a video I recently watched.

A private fund manager discussed a case during a recent interview:

He researched Moutai in 2012, and for the next three years, Moutai had almost zero growth. Meanwhile, during the same period (2012 to 2015), LeEco surged nearly 30 times.

At that time, people who bought Moutai and those who bought LeEco sat together for meals, and the Moutai buyers were mocked by the LeEco buyers.

This situation easily gives people the impression that:

It’s enough to look at the fundamentals and the capital situation. You can buy a junk stock and still see it rise several times; holding onto a performance stock for years might not yield as much as a few months with a junk stock.

However, this manager believes that in such a market, one should pay more attention to risk. Because when a junk stock skyrockets, common sense should tell you whether this is an opportunity or a risk.

The long-term result of such a market is definitely a zero-sum game. Interestingly, most active participants in such a market believe they are smarter than others, but the final outcome is almost always a mess, with no one escaping unscathed.

Afterward, this fund manager investigated those around him who had bought LeEco and had once been pleased with its skyrocketing price, and found that not a single one of them made money from that stock.

The lesson reflected in this example is quite simple:

The market is often very irrational, especially during times of massive bubbles, and this is even more pronounced. Moreover, the unfortunate reality is that whenever such a bubble inflates, many participants believe they are adept at exploiting it and recklessly dive in. At this time, understanding and adhering to the value of investment targets becomes incredibly important and precious. It is not only the last line of defense for investors but also the only way to avoid falling into traps.

Such stories are repeatedly played out in various investment markets and at different times. Although many investors have learned and even repented for these lessons over and over again, whenever history repeats itself, human greed immediately causes most participants to forget history, forget the lessons, and dive back in with enthusiasm.

Comparing this to the crypto ecosystem, I reflected on my past experiences. At least so far, the assets I have invested heavily in (Bitcoin and Ethereum) have not experienced a situation like Moutai: from the time of purchase (starting dollar-cost averaging) to three years later, the price has not increased at all.

I wonder, if one day the Bitcoin and Ethereum I bought continue to have strong fundamentals like Moutai in the previous example, but their prices do not rise for three years, would I still believe that Bitcoin and Ethereum have value?

Moreover, if at the same time, another potential junk coin skyrockets dozens of times during those three years, even though I know deep down and can judge that it has no real value, would I waver in my judgment and values due to the extreme irrationality of the market, changing my behavior to go with the flow?

At this moment, I cannot confidently provide a definitive answer.

From this perspective, it is truly remarkable that veterans like Buffett, Munger, and Duan Yongping, who have experienced decades in the investment market, seen countless cases of Moutai and LeEco, and endured numerous instances of market irrationality, can remain so calm and steadfast in their methods, approaches, and beliefs. This is not something just anyone can achieve.

If we look at it with the correct standards today, faith, belief, and values have truly become ingrained in their minds, hearts, and souls.

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