Good morning, crypto friends! I am Wang Yibo. Today is Thursday, July 24, 2025. As a new day begins, let us focus on the real-time hotspots in the crypto world and explore potential trading opportunities.
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The overnight market has seen dramatic changes, with the U.S. stock market and the crypto market showing different trends. The U.S. stock market closed strongly on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones initially rising by 1.1%, the S&P 500 index up 0.78%, and the Nasdaq up 0.6%. Among them, Circle (CRCL.N) and Nvidia (NVDA.O) both rose by 2%, while General Motors (GM.N) surged by 8.7%. In stark contrast, the overnight crypto market experienced a widespread decline, with Bitcoin and Ethereum breaking down, trading volume drastically shrinking, and the futures market seeing significant liquidations of long positions. This divergent trend undoubtedly adds a degree of uncertainty to the crypto market.
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The Federal Reserve's interest rate policy has always been a significant factor influencing the market. According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is 97.4%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is only 2.6%; the probability of maintaining rates in September is 37.2%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut at 61.2%, and a cumulative 50 basis point cut at 1.6%. This indicates that the market has certain expectations for a rate cut in September, which may subsequently impact the crypto market, and everyone should continue to pay attention.
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Looking at Bitcoin's performance, it initially rebounded slightly overnight before continuing to decline, dipping to a low of 117,288 before stopping the drop and rising again, reaching a high of 118,707 near midnight, only to face pressure and fall back again, showing a clear range fluctuation characteristic. The price has been oscillating between 117,300 and 118,800. From a daily technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin's movement shows an alternating rhythm of ups and downs. Although the Bollinger Bands remain open upwards, the consecutive rebound highs are gradually decreasing, forming a clear "divergence" characteristic. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator's red bars continue to shorten, indicating a gradual weakening of bullish strength; the KDJ indicator has formed a downward crossover, and the RSI indicator has also begun to turn downwards. These signals collectively indicate a lack of upward momentum in the short-term market, with a strong demand for a pullback. Switching to the hourly candlestick chart, Bitcoin's price has formed a wedge rebound pattern, currently running towards the convergence end of the oscillation range. This technical shape, similar to a triangular consolidation, often signals a trend reversal. If the price breaks below the support level, the market is likely to enter a new downtrend. It is recommended that everyone closely monitor market movements and adjust their trading strategies in a timely manner. If the price can hold above the support level and break through the upper range, there may be a wave of upward movement, but one should be cautious of insufficient bullish strength.
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Ethereum, on the other hand, has shown a downward oscillation trend, with the price declining from a morning high of 3,764 to an evening low of 3,526. Ethereum's rebound yesterday was weak, and the price has again moved lower, with the daily level pullback still ongoing. From the current market perspective, the alternating characteristics of the candlesticks are significant, and the oscillation range is clearly visible. On the four-hour level, the trend shows a clear downward trajectory, having effectively broken below the middle Bollinger Band support and is now testing the lower band area. The latest recorded long bearish candlestick has no significant upper shadow, highlighting the absolute dominance of bearish strength, and the bearish candlestick is accompanied by significant volume, further confirming the validity of the downward trend. The upper resistance to watch today is around 3,650. If it cannot rebound and stabilize, the pullback is expected to continue, so the trading suggestion for today is to short in line with the trend. Of course, if it unexpectedly breaks above 3,650 and can hold, one may also consider rebound opportunities, but caution is advised.
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If you are feeling lost—unable to understand the technology, unsure how to read the market, not knowing when to enter, unable to set stop losses, unclear about taking profits, randomly increasing positions, getting stuck while trying to catch the bottom, unable to hold onto profits, missing out on market movements… these are common issues for retail investors. But don't worry, I can help you establish the correct trading mindset. A single profitable trade speaks louder than a thousand words, and finding the right direction is better than repeatedly facing losses. Instead of frequent trading, it’s better to strike precisely, making each trade more valuable. If you need real-time guidance, you can scan the QR code at the bottom of the article to follow my public account. The market changes rapidly, and due to the timeliness of reviews, subsequent trends will be based on real-time layouts. I look forward to progressing steadily with you in the market.
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