To enter the top 10%, your average bet amount must exceed $500.
Written by: @mattdotfi
Compiled by: AididiaoJP, Foresight News
This article will analyze whether it is still worth participating in Polymarket airdrop mining at this stage.
What is Polymarket
Polymarket is a prediction platform based on the Polygon blockchain that allows users to bet on events by choosing between two possible scenarios. Polymarket gained public attention due to betting events related to the 2024 U.S. presidential election. During the 2024 U.S. presidential election, odds on Polymarket indicated that Donald Trump was more likely to succeed in his campaign than Kamala Harris, leading many to place bets on Polymarket, which became increasingly popular after Trump's successful campaign.
Polymarket currently does not have an official token, but the team has hinted multiple times that they will issue a token. They have completed three rounds of cryptocurrency venture capital funding, including a Series C round last week. While we do not know much about this round, sources from June indicated that they aim to achieve a valuation of over $1 billion in a $200 million funding round.
Source: Crunchbase
About the Airdrop
It seems to be a market consensus that the Polymarket token has a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $1 billion, but we also need to consider the following factors:
A conservative estimate suggests that up to 10% of the total supply will be airdropped to traders, as they are the only eligible participants for the airdrop; Polymarket does not have liquidity providers.
The sustainability of Polymarket activities may also be important, as it means you have enough time to participate.
The Polymarket prediction market has been running for quite some time, and CC2Ventures hinted that a snapshot was taken last year.
If you want to participate in airdrop mining, you need to place bets in the market. The following data can be referenced:
Cumulative trading volume has reached $15.7 billion.
An average of 24,000 active wallets place bets on Polymarket daily.
Data Source: Dune Analytics
Currently, there are a total of 1.2 million wallets that have interacted, with half having placed bets more than 5 times.
To be among the top 10% of traders, your average bet amount must exceed $500.
Data Source: Dune Analytics
Conclusion
If the snapshot has not yet been taken, to qualify for the airdrop, you should place bets in markets that are advantageous and most likely to develop as you expect. Additionally, to enter the top 10%, your average bet amount must exceed $500. You may also need to bet on multiple markets and maintain at least weekly activity.
If you want to participate in this airdrop mining, you should first ensure that you can withstand trading losses in the three to four-figure range, as over 90% of traders on any betting/trading platform will incur losses in the long run. The expected value (EV) is high enough to offset the anticipated losses.
In my view, I would only participate in airdrop mining at this stage if the token is expected to launch with a valuation in the billions; the activity on the platform and the average bet amount are difficult for ordinary users to bear. Statistically, if you bet on these prediction markets, you are expected to incur losses in the long run.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
