Thoughts on the interview with Sister Wood

CN
8 hours ago

I watched a recent interview with Cathie Wood over the weekend. After watching, I suddenly began to reflect on a past experience of mine. Upon further thought, I realized that there is a significant difference between being able to understand a principle and being able to reflect on it.

In this interview, Cathie Wood discussed her initial experiences researching Bitcoin.

Speaking of her early experiences with Bitcoin, I recently came across a video where the legendary investor Mike Novogratz explained Bitcoin in 2013.

In that video, Novogratz talked about how Bitcoin could become digital gold and predicted that its development would go through a cognitive process from individuals to institutions to nations. Based on this understanding, he was very optimistic about Bitcoin's investment value.

After watching the video, my first impression was one of admiration for Novogratz, for having such profound and high-level insights during that era.

However, my thoughts ended there.

In the video where Cathie Wood explained Bitcoin, she recalled some details about her first encounter with Bitcoin:

When she first saw Bitcoin, she immediately asked a professor from USC to study the Bitcoin white paper.

This professor was very shocked after reading the Bitcoin white paper and told Cathie Wood that Bitcoin was exactly what he had been waiting for, something that could become part of the world financial system after the U.S. government closed the gold-dollar exchange window in 1971. He believed that Bitcoin fully possessed the three attributes of money: store of value, medium of exchange, and unit of account.

After hearing his explanation, Cathie Wood was also very shocked and asked him how big the potential of Bitcoin could be. The professor replied that the value system of Bitcoin could be as large as the dollar system.

Then Cathie Wood made a rough estimate. It was 2015, and at that time, the dollar system was about $45 trillion. Converted to Bitcoin's unit price, that would be $210,000. However, at that time, the price of Bitcoin was only $250.

So, Cathie Wood made her first purchase of Bitcoin, and she has held onto her privately purchased portion to this day.

After watching this video, I had a reaction that was clearly different from my reaction after watching Novogratz's video:

This time, I didn't just stop at admiring Cathie Wood's foresight; I immediately recalled my feelings when I first read the Bitcoin white paper. More accurately, it was my feelings after reading both the Bitcoin and Ethereum white papers for the first time.

What shocked me the most at that time was the thought: if we could use an unbreakable network like Bitcoin as a database to store humanity's most precious knowledge (like the human genome), it would be a treasure for all humanity; if all legal enforcement could be placed on Ethereum, then the enforcement of laws for all humanity could not only be just and transparent but also greatly reduce costs.

But Novogratz and the professor read something completely different:

They directly associated Bitcoin's potential value as a financial asset.

Cathie Wood, however, took it a step further:

She immediately thought about how much value Bitcoin could have as a financial asset, and she not only thought that way but also quickly quantified the potential maximum returns of investing in Bitcoin at that time.

"There are a thousand Hamlets in a thousand people's eyes."

This saying is very illustrative in this case.

We read the same material, but the feelings we derived from it were completely different. I only thought of the potential practical uses, while Novogratz, the professor, and Cathie Wood saw the potential investment value.

Reflecting on my reactions to projects over the years, it seems that my initial focus has never been on potential financial value, but rather I would arrive at financial value after a lot of reasoning and circling around.

As an investor, this reaction is still somewhat dull; I completely lack their sensitivity.

Moreover, I didn't think of this point when I first watched Novogratz's video; it wasn't until I saw Cathie Wood's video that I realized this obvious gap.

On Saturday, July 12, at 7:30 PM, we will have an online discussion. Everyone can post their questions in the following thread:

https://x.com/Dao_Views/status/1941136815173566847

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