Powell's speech last night shifted interest rate cut expectations to September, with a low probability for July (around 20%). The market interpreted this as neutral to dovish, while U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that the Federal Reserve will definitely cut rates before September. The young master also reminded at the beginning of June not to focus on when the rate cuts will happen every day; the probability of rate cuts starting in September to October is high, and there is usually a wave in the market during that time each year.
This year, aside from the Bitcoin bull market, the crypto industry has been underperforming in the bear market. By 2025, the crypto market will see differentiation, with Bitcoin's market cap accounting for a record high of 64%. Altcoins have seen their market cap evaporate by over $300 billion, and the index tracking the latter half of the top 100 by market cap has dropped about 50% this year. However, DeFi-related tokens like Maker and Hyperliquid have performed well. Patience will eventually pay off; to put it simply, it’s about enduring and seeing who laughs last…
The Ethereum Community Fund has now been officially established, aiming to promote the price increase of ETH. Bit Digital's underwriters fully exercised their purchase option, raising $162.9 million, which may be used to buy ETH. Keep an eye on opportunities in the second half of the year…
Bitcoin
The first half of the market has passed; brothers, are you happy or worried? The monthly line closed with a doji star, and after three consecutive monthly gains, the new month opened lower. The daily line is under pressure at the upper line of the rising flag pattern, currently focusing on the support rebound strength at the daily MA20-60 between 104,000 and 105,000. However, if the rebound strength is strong, there may be a chance to retest 110,000 or even higher. If it fails to hold, a continuation of the downward flag pattern is not ruled out. Regardless of how much it retraces, the upward trend cannot be reversed; the outlook remains bullish, just with a longer time frame.
The 4-hour rising channel has broken down, with the price line also breaking below 106,300, hitting a low of 105,100 before rebounding to around 106,500, indicating a potential return after breaking down. Currently, the focus is on the support of the daily MA20 and MA60.
Support: 95,000—102,000
Resistance: 108,000—110,000—112,000
Ethereum
Ethereum hit a low of 2,373 but remains above 2,300. The daily line has been in a narrow range for about 10 days, similar to before, with a low of 2,111 followed by a rebound still above 2,300. Therefore, I remain optimistic about the subsequent rebound, including seeing some altcoins gradually showing buying points like DYDX, UNI, SOL, SUI…
Support: 2,111—2,367
Resistance: 2,700—2,879
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The article is time-sensitive and for reference only; it is updated in real-time.
Focusing on K-line technical research, sharing global investment opportunities. Official account: BTC Trading Young Master Fusu
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