1. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July reaches 81.9%
Click the link to enter the Tencent meeting: https://meeting.tencent.com/p/9850662513 for a detailed analysis of ETH's recent market trends and subsequent movements, and to implement strategic plans! Three major driving forces ignite the short squeeze market: 1. Macroeconomic policy easing: The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July reaches 81.9%, combined with Trump's call for interest rate cuts, leading to a surge in market risk appetite and hot money flowing into the crypto market. 2. Institutional capital enters with a nuclear-level impact: The cumulative net inflow of Ethereum ETFs exceeds $4.01 billion, with BlackRock's ETF (ETHA) attracting $160 million in a single day due to its ultra-low management fee of 0.25%, becoming the core engine for bulls. 3. Technical resonance: ETH surged from $2,429 to $2,524 within an hour, an increase of 3.15%, with KDJ golden cross and RSI breaking above 50, releasing buy signals and triggering programmatic trading follow-ups.
Battle of bulls and bears: $5 billion in short positions face a life-and-death crisis. Major whales force a short squeeze: LD Capital founder Jack Yi publicly disclosed a spot holding of 142,000 ETH (with a floating profit of 57.3%) and added 100,000 call options, applying pressure on shorts through a "spot pull-up - options profit" cycle. The short defense line is weak: The total ETH short position across the network reaches $5 billion, including $1.5 billion in CME options shorts and $800 million in AAVE lending shorts. If ETH breaks through $3,000, it could trigger $800 million in CME liquidations and $230 million in on-chain liquidations.
Key resistance contention: $2,650 forms a strong resistance with a "triple top," while $2,800 is the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level and the upper band of the weekly Bollinger Bands, breaking through this level will open the path to $3,000. Is $3,000 in sight? Be cautious of short-term pullback risks. Optimistic signals: Polymarket predictions show a 35% probability of ETH breaking through $2,600; if institutional holding exceeds 33% (currently below 30%), a bull market may officially start.
Concerns remain: The technical RSI is overbought (72), and the MVRV ratio has risen to 19.25%, indicating profit-taking pressure; a mysterious whale has established a $122 million short position against the trend, having previously accurately targeted local highs.
Decisive battle node: The 13F filings in mid-July will disclose the actual holdings of institutions like BlackRock; if allocations exceed expectations, ETH may surge to $3,000; conversely, it may fall into a liquidity trap.
Investor strategy: Survival rules in a short squeeze market. Bullish offense: Gradual position building (e.g., buy 30% at $2,650, add 40% upon breaking $2,800), paired with bull market spread options to control risk. Risk defense: Closely monitor liquidation warning points (e.g., ETH $2,650 resistance, $2,430 support), and set reasonable stop-losses to prevent "false breakouts."
Volatility equals opportunity, but discipline is life—when whales flip the table, blindly chasing the rise may become a victim of capital games. ETH's dream of $3,000 will ultimately be determined by the triple resonance of macro, on-chain, and technical factors.
Operational suggestions: BTC long at $106,500, first target at $107,550, second target at $108,350. ETH long at $2,450, first target at $2,500, second target at $2,545. Join the community group chat for more services: 1. Real-time market analysis (online one-on-one Q&A and sorting) 2. Professional technical analysis and theoretical learning 3. Trading system construction and improvement 4. Daily live courses, contract analysis, real-time trading, helping you succeed!
Teachers in the group provide precise point layouts and answer questions daily, offering free guidance. Tencent meeting live: 985-066-2513 DingTalk group number: 120320009032.
Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal views, is for communication and sharing purposes only, does not represent the position and views of AICoin, and does not constitute any investment advice. Investing based on this may have external contacts, and AICoin is not responsible for the consequences. -Original
2. Powell states the need to establish a stablecoin framework, progress is being made
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that we believe a stablecoin framework needs to be established, and progress is currently being made. -Original
3. Mastercard expands crypto team to promote blockchain initiatives
Payment giant Mastercard is expanding its crypto business team and plans to hire two vice president-level executives based in the U.S. The head of digital asset ecosystem growth will lead collaborations with stablecoin issuers, infrastructure providers, and others to advance its multi-token network (MTN) and other initiatives; the head of financial institution growth will promote the adoption of blockchain technology by banks and other institutions, exploring scenarios such as cross-border payments and asset tokenization. Mastercard's crypto business head Raj Dhamodharan stated that the company is committed to connecting traditional finance with blockchain networks and has recently announced plans to incorporate more stablecoins into its global payment system, launching the Mastercard Move cross-border settlement service based on USDC. This recruitment continues its active layout in the crypto field in recent years, including participation in the construction of the Paxos stablecoin network. -Original
4. New York Attorney General suggests using digital identity technology for stablecoin to protect investors
James suggested that Congress require stablecoin issuers to use "digital identity technology" in all stablecoin purchases and transactions to protect national security. -Original
5. Deutsche Bank plans to launch digital asset custody services next year
According to insiders, Deutsche Bank plans to launch its digital asset custody services next year and has hired the technology department of cryptocurrency exchange Bitpanda to assist in building the product. Deutsche Bank's corporate banking division first announced its custody plans in 2022 and will continue to collaborate with Swiss technology provider Taurus SA to provide this service. Earlier this month, Deutsche Bank stated that it is researching stablecoins and different forms of tokenized deposits. -Original
6. Tim Draper predicts Bitcoin may replace the dollar within 10 years
Odaily Planet Daily reports that Draper VC founder Tim Draper stated in a recent interview that Bitcoin may replace the dollar within 10 years. (Bitcoin News) Tim Draper previously believed that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by 2025, with the main driving factors being: market optimism following Trump's trade agreements, the anticipated regulatory framework for the industry, and the continuous development of Web3 applications built on the Bitcoin blockchain. -Original
7. King of Bhutan meets Binance CEO to promote crypto innovation
Binance CEO stated, "It was a great honor to meet His Majesty the King of Bhutan. In addition to its picturesque natural scenery, this 'Land of Happiness' is unique, and under the visionary leadership of His Majesty, Bhutan actively promotes innovation while adhering to its local culture. This vision is concretely reflected in Bhutan being the world's third-largest national holder of Bitcoin, having started using green energy for mining five years ago; GMC (Gelephu Mindfulness City) is also supporting crypto innovation and treating crypto assets as strategic reserves. I introduced to His Majesty the successful implementation of Binance Pay in Bhutan's tourism payment sector and our continued support for the kingdom's development efforts." -Original
8. U.S. Senate rejects the "End Corruption in Crypto" amendment
U.S. Senator Jeff Merkley stated on platform X that his proposed "End Corruption in Crypto" amendment was not passed due to opposition from Republicans. The bill aimed to prohibit elected officials from promoting cryptocurrencies for improper benefits. The bill was rejected with 46 votes in favor and 54 against. Merkley complained, "No elected official should be able to use cryptocurrency schemes to sell influence and line their pockets." -Original
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