Since the official ceasefire between Iran and Israel, BTC has quickly rebounded, soaring from a low of $98,000 to $109,000, just a step away from its historical high. Market sentiment has warmed up, reigniting discussions about whether a "bull run for altcoins" will arrive, and the divergence among traders has intensified.

Supporters argue that historical experience cannot be ignored—whenever Bitcoin's market share peaks and then retreats, the altcoin season quietly arrives. Now, with BTC's market share approaching 66%, a breakthrough above 70% could trigger a full-blown altcoin explosion. Opponents point out that current market liquidity remains fragile, with conservative capital in the market, and many altcoins lack fundamental support, leading to a proliferation of "air coins," making a widespread rally difficult.

Despite differing views, traders have reached a consensus on one point: the altcoin season will not truly arrive in the short term. The current market remains dominated by Bitcoin, with a defensive market structure. A genuine altcoin season may require more time.

Fundamental Analysis Camp

@ohyishi

A large number of U.S. stock tickers have been bridged to the crypto market, essentially reversing the liquidity from the crypto market to the U.S. stock market. Some altcoins that had little value now seem even more like air.

@timotimo007

The on-chain U.S. stocks feel like they are siphoning liquidity from the crypto space, pulling in liquidity from outside normal channels for purchasing U.S. stocks. The money from the crypto space, other third-world funds, and dirty money… this is bearish for most altcoins, making the already distant altcoin season even further away. Altcoins are essentially air, without value, and once they are listed, aside from shorting, there is no way to make money; only fools would take the bait, but fools won't remain foolish forever.

Technical Analysis Camp

@biupa

Ethereum and some altcoins (like SOL) are showing strong performance, with the possibility of testing $2,500 (ETH) or $150-$155 (SOL). Strong altcoins like $AAVE, $Fartcoin, and $HYPE are worth watching, as they may exhibit structural trends.

However, until BTC breaks above $110,000, I do not believe we are entering a "main upward wave."

There is a divergence in the market: some are bearish (expecting a significant drop), while others are bullish (expecting the main upward wave to continue), making trading quite challenging.

@joao_wedson

For the past 60 days, this index has been in the Bitcoin season range, indicating that Bitcoin has outperformed most altcoins. But this isn't necessarily a bad thing—it may be a good opportunity to position oneself while altcoins are still lagging. History tells us that such cycles always repeat— the market may soon be on the verge of a reaction. Be particularly cautious when shorting at this time. Don't lose money on the way down before the rebound arrives.

The chart below shows that whenever this index rises more than 20%, it tends to surge significantly in a short time, peaking at 80%, as the "lagging" altcoins begin to outperform Bitcoin.

@MikybullCrypto

BTC's dominance is at 65.77%, maintaining an upward trend, indicating that it is still "Bitcoin season." Historically, once Bitcoin's dominance exceeds 70% and then drops significantly, a "full-blown altcoin season" occurs.

Data Analysis Camp

@Cato_CryptoM

Market data shows:

1. Market cap values have not changed much, but the proportion of altcoins has increased slightly, showing some optimism over the weekend.
2. Trading volume continues to decline; compared to last Thursday's record, trading volume is still decreasing, indicating weak market liquidity.
3. On-chain retained funds have increased by $200 million, with a total of $262.6 billion.
4. USDT: Official data shows a market cap of $157.693 billion, an increase of $476 million compared to last Thursday, with Asian funds continuing to flow in, while trading volume has significantly decreased.
5. USDC: According to official data, last week saw a net inflow of $300 million into USDC, with the current market cap showing little change. Recent inflows from the U.S. have weakened, and trading volume has dropped significantly, indicating a substantial decrease in trading willingness among U.S. traders.

Assessment: Although altcoins have shown slight movements, overall data still does not appear overly optimistic. With low liquidity, market volatility has increased, capital activity has weakened, and the trading willingness of U.S. traders has declined, making it difficult to support sustained activity in altcoins.

@CryptoPainter_X

The distribution of this funding rate is quite interesting…
On one side, the market collectively does not have high hopes for BTC's future performance, while on the other side, there is a contradictory optimism towards altcoins…
It is clear that the interest of on-chain funds is shifting; is there still a glimmer of hope for the altcoin season?

@JamesWynnReal

Bitcoin's market share (BTC.D) may reach an unprecedented new high. This could significantly extend the time before we truly welcome the altcoin season.

When BTC.D declines and prepares to slow down, the altcoin season will arrive. In my view, Bitcoin must reach at least $120,000 to $140,000 to achieve this.

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