Bitcoin and Ethereum have traded flat as Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declared the nation’s victory over the U.S. early on Thursday.

“My congratulations on our dear Iran’s victory over the US regime. The US regime entered the war directly because it felt that if it didn’t, the Zionist regime would be completely destroyed,” Khamenei said on X. “It entered the war in an effort to save that regime but achieved nothing.”

Bitcoin saw a momentary recovery and is now down 0.2% to $107,139 over the past 24 hours. For a while, it seemed it may reach above $108,000—a price it hasn’t seen since June 16—but it’s since retraced slightly. Ethereum has fared slightly better, climbing 0.2% to $2,439, according to CoinGecko. 

Both coins are down 2.2% and 6.7% over the past 30 days, likely due to geopolitical concerns.

“It seems fairly self-evident and indeed logical that the Iran-Israel conflict is the predominant source of Bitcoin pricing movements,” James Toledano, Chief Operating Officer at Unity Wallet, said in a market note. “Today’s recovery appears intertwined with macro factors: a weaker U.S. dollar, reduced oil prices, renewed Fed rate cut bets, and sustained ETF inflows. Technical support in the $100–103k also seems more of a reality, too.”

Israel conducted airstrikes on Iran on June 13, prompting two weeks of fighting in the region. This led to the United States dropping bombs on Iranian nuclear facilities on Sunday, which many believed could have been a catalyst for a large-scale war. The States getting involved spooked markets, prompting $701 million in crypto liqudiations in just 24 hours.

However, World War III didn’t break out. President Trump announced a ceasefire between the nations on Tuesday. Despite a few missiles being fired from both sides after the ceasefire deal was struck—which prompted Trump to swear while speaking to the media—it appears tensions have cooled. At the time of writing, 93% of users on Myriad Markets believe the ceasefire deal will hold at least until Friday.

Early on Thursday, Khamenei claimed victory over the U.S. and highlighted his nation’s strikes on the States as a sign of power. As such, Myriad Markets has it as 77% likely that Khamenei is still in power by the end of September.

“The Islamic Republic delivered a heavy slap to the US’s face. It attacked and inflicted damage on the Al-Udeid Air Base, which is one of the key US bases in the region,” he added.

U.S. Bitcoin ETF inflows have been steadily climbing throughout the conflict, after dropping as low as $6.4 million on June 20 as fighting intensified. On Wednesday, according to Farside, the ETFs saw $547.7 million worth of inflows. 

Similarly, U.S. Ethereum ETFs saw $11.3 million worth of outflows on June 20 but has since bounced back to $60.4 million worth of inflows on Wednesday, according to CoinGlass.

Broadly, according to CoinGecko, the crypto market is down 1.6% with Bitcoin Cash leading the way for gains up 3.5% and Sei down the hardest 10.3%.

Edited by Stacy Elliott.

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