Yesterday, the weekend market fluctuated wildly, with Bitcoin dropping directly from around 103,000 to 98,125, and Ethereum also approaching below 2,000, still influenced by news. In fact, it's not just the news; from a technical perspective, Bitcoin's trend also has the opportunity to test the bottom at 96,000. From the weekly chart, we can see that the lower MA30 position is at 95,905, and Bitcoin still has a high probability of continuing to drop and touch that level.
On the news front, the United States is stirring things up again. Hongwei is not focused on the act itself but rather on the fact that as a financial product, virtual currencies were previously compared to gold. However, this time gold seems to have been mistakenly sold off, while Bitcoin should have dropped. Now, Bitcoin is increasingly resembling the U.S. stock market, with growing similarities. During times of war, value preservation still relies on gold, after all, gold has a much longer history. The current administration's non-involvement in war has also been broken; previously, it seemed focused solely on economic development, engaging in stocks, making money, and imposing tariffs all for profit. There's nothing wrong with making money, but who would have thought that with such a strong presence, they would also engage in war.
Recently, the accuracy of the market outlook has been evident to everyone. Although the market has been fluctuating without providing a clear direction, we can still analyze it in conjunction with the market conditions, and it has reached a precise grasp. The actual trading has also frequently led to substantial profits. If there are still friends who cannot make accurate judgments about the current market conditions and are suffering losses, it might be a good idea to follow Hongwei's rhythm, as he can guide you in the right direction.
Returning to the market, today is Monday, and we first look at the weekly chart:
On the weekly chart, after the bearish engulfing pattern and two weeks of doji candles, the fierce struggle between bulls and bears still resulted in a decline last week. This week's high is estimated to be around 105,500. If it doesn't break, friends holding long positions can wait for this opportunity to break even.
Next is the current trend. First, after such a sharp drop yesterday, there will definitely be a recovery during the day. As for where it will recover to, it should be around the MA10 position of 1,026, with the target for the drop being MA30 at 96,000. The above information is what the weekly chart brings us.
Furthermore, both the 12-hour and 4-hour charts support the current upward trend. We are bearish in the long term but bullish in the short term, making it easier to operate.
From a technical analysis perspective, the current daily price has touched the lower Bollinger Band, and the MACD momentum bars are continuously shrinking, without establishing a solid bullish trend structure. The current upward trend is essentially more inclined towards a technical correction of the previous trading day's oversold condition. The key to future market movements is to focus on the breakthrough of the two key resistance levels at 1,026 and 1,055—these two points serve as important pressure zones controlled by the main forces and will directly determine the subsequent trend direction.
Hongwei's Strategy Share for June 23:
Short Bitcoin at 102,000-102,500, take profit at 101,000-100,000-99,000
Short Ethereum at 2,250-2,280, take profit at 2,200-2,150-2,100
—— I am Hongwei, a teacher focused on technical analysis. Anyone with questions about operations or trends can communicate and learn with me! Let's exchange ideas and profit together! Remember Hongwei, always here, follow Hongwei and you won't get lost!
【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article's review and publication may have delays, and the strategies may not be timely. Specific operations should follow Hongwei's real-time strategies.】
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