Under the complex interplay of the global economy and geopolitical factors, every interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve sends ripples through the global financial markets. Although the Federal Reserve announced on June 18 that it would keep interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations, the meeting minutes and Chairman Powell's remarks released subtle hawkish signals. Simon Dangoor, head of fixed income macro strategy at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, expects the Federal Reserve to remain on hold next month. With concerns over inflation, internal policy disagreements, and geopolitical risks compounding, the cryptocurrency market is entering a critical window that could see significant volatility.
- Federal Reserve Policy Outlook: Goldman Sachs Expects No Change Next Month, Rate Cut Expectations Remain for the Year
On June 19, Simon Dangoor stated that despite the Federal Reserve raising its near-term inflation expectations, the tone of the meeting remained dovish, and he anticipates two rate cuts this year. He pointed out that FOMC members indicated they believe the recent inflation uptick is largely temporary and that their tolerance for rising unemployment remains low.
Dangoor further predicted: "We expect the Federal Reserve to remain on hold at next month's meeting, but we believe that if the labor market weakens, a new round of easing could begin later this year." This suggests that while the Federal Reserve may remain cautious in the short term, its reliance on economic data and focus on the labor market will be key drivers for future policy adjustments.
- Powell's Remarks and Dot Plot: Internal Policy Disagreements Amid Hawkish Signals
The Federal Reserve announced its latest interest rate decision on June 18, maintaining rates in the 4.25%–4.5% range and indicating the possibility of two rate cuts this year. However, Chairman Powell expressed concerns about future inflation pressures, stating, "Due to tariff impacts, there may be significant inflationary pressures in the coming months." This statement introduced new uncertainties into the market.
More notably, the updated dot plot released clear hawkish signals: although a 50 basis point rate cut is still expected in 2025, the rate cut path for 2026 and beyond has been significantly downgraded, indicating a more cautious view from the Federal Reserve regarding medium-term inflation pressures. Among the 19 committee members, only 10 expect at least two rate cuts this year, a decrease from March, while 2 expect only one cut, and the number of members expecting no cuts this year has risen from 4 to 7. This widening divergence reflects increasing uncertainty within the Federal Reserve regarding the economic outlook, inflation trajectory, and policy tolerance.
- Escalating Geopolitical Risks: Cryptocurrency Market Faces Potential Volatility
In addition to the uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy, the compounding geopolitical risks present new challenges for global markets, particularly the cryptocurrency market. Chloe, a columnist for HTX DeepThink and a researcher at HTX Research, pointed out that as global macro and geopolitical risks intensify, the cryptocurrency market is entering a critical window for potential volatility.
According to multiple sources, the U.S. may target Iran's nuclear facilities and core military capabilities to disrupt its nuclear program and weaken regional deterrence. If this occurs, it would mark a shift in U.S.-Iran relations from long-standing proxy conflicts to direct military confrontation. Iran, as a strategic pivot among "non-Arab countries" in the Middle East, plays a unique role in balancing the Arab alliance. Whether this strike extends to regime change will be a crucial variable in assessing the depth and duration of the conflict, as well as determining the direction of regional capital flows and global risk aversion.
- Market Reactions and Asset Allocation: Diverse Choices Amid Risk Aversion
The Federal Reserve's hawkish signals have had a direct impact on the market. According to FXStreet, during the Asian session on Friday, gold prices (XAU/USD) faced new supply shocks and hit a more than one-week low in the last hour. The Federal Reserve's tough stance indicates that inflation risks remain high and suggests that future rate cuts will slow, which is seen as a key factor undermining gold, a non-yielding asset.
However, weakened risk appetite may provide support for this safe-haven asset and help limit further declines. Against the backdrop of uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump's tariff policies, the further escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict continues to affect investor sentiment. The stock market generally weakened, and a slight decline in the U.S. dollar (USD) could be beneficial for gold prices.
In the context of geopolitical risks compounded by monetary policy uncertainty, global funds are actively seeking new hedging paths, with more investors choosing to participate in asset allocation through U.S. Bitcoin ETFs, gold ETFs, and tech stocks. This indicates that in an increasingly uncertain market environment, investors are actively seeking diversified asset allocation strategies to hedge against potential risks.
Conclusion:
Goldman's prediction of the Federal Reserve remaining on hold next month, along with the hawkish signals released internally, paints a challenging macroeconomic picture. Under the multiple influences of inflation pressures, policy disagreements, and geopolitical risks, the cryptocurrency market, as a high-risk, high-reward asset class, may face more significant volatility. Investors need to closely monitor macroeconomic data, geopolitical developments, and the Federal Reserve's policy direction, carefully assess risks, and adopt flexible asset allocation strategies.
Related: Federal Reserve's Pause on Rate Hikes Boosts Bitcoin, BTC Aims for $106,000 Short Squeeze
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