Zhou Yanling: 6.20 Bitcoin and Ethereum Latest Trend Prediction Analysis and Trading Strategy
The Federal Reserve has put interest rate cuts on the agenda, with significant internal divisions, but it is expected to clarify its stance within a month, leaning overall dovish but not as much as the market previously anticipated. The key will be the subsequent non-farm payroll and inflation data; Powell has clearly stated that the threshold for rate cuts is a softening job market or continuously declining inflation. If the data does not meet expectations, the possibility of rate cuts and cryptocurrency prices will fluctuate. The latest non-farm payroll data will be released in two weeks, and for now, we should focus on Bitcoin's cyclical pricing. Before the Federal Reserve's monetary policy officially shifts, cryptocurrency prices, U.S. stocks, the dollar, and other assets will experience cyclical pricing. The market is currently pricing in a rate cut in September, while the official probability of a rate cut in October is 85%. Coupled with recent tariffs putting pressure on the economy, this probability may further increase, leading to an earlier cycle. In the next two months, cryptocurrency prices will follow expected pricing trends; this round is not about speculating on the extent of rate cuts but rather about lowering the cost of cryptocurrency prices before the cuts to buy in.
Looking at the technical indicators on the chart, the daily level shows that prices have been oscillating at a high level recently, with yesterday closing as a small bearish candle with upper and lower shadows, indicating a balance of power between bulls and bears, but overall leaning weak. The hourly level shows signs of stabilization after a series of small declines, with current prices approaching the previous low support area. In the hourly technical indicators, both DIF and DEA are below the zero axis, and the green bars are shortening, indicating a weakening of bearish momentum and a possibility of a rebound; the daily MACD is still in a death cross state, with a bearish trend. The hourly RSI is at 44.79, not in the oversold zone but close to below 50, indicating weak market sentiment; the daily RSI is gradually retreating to a neutral area, with no obvious divergence signals. The hourly price is running near EMA7, under pressure from it, while being far below EMA30 and EMA120, indicating a continued bearish short-term trend. The daily EMA7, EMA30, and EMA120 are all diverging downwards, confirming a mid-term downward trend.
6.20 Bitcoin Trading Strategy:
Short at 105500-104700, stop loss above 106500, target 103800-103000
Long at 103000-103800, stop loss below 102000, target 105000-105800
6.20 Ethereum Trading Strategy:
Short at 2570-2540, stop loss above 2610, target 2470-2440-2400
Long at 2410-2450, stop loss below 2370, target 2510-2550
【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article review and publication may have delays, and the strategies may not be timely. Specific operations should follow Yanling's real-time strategies.】
This article is exclusively shared by senior analyst Zhou Yanling (WeChat public account: Zhou Yanling). The author has been engaged in financial market investment research for over ten years, currently mainly analyzing and guiding BTC, ETH, DOT, DOGE, LTC, FIL, EOS, XRP, BCH, ETC, BSV, and other cryptocurrency contract/spot operations. For more real-time community guidance, consultation on unblocking positions, and learning trading skills, you can follow the teacher's public account: Zhou Yanling to find the teacher.
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