Federal Reserve's Hawkish Expectations Rise, Crypto Market's Bull-Bear Tug-of-War Intensifies

I. Dual Fundamental Risks Overlap, Market Uncertainty Soars

1. Federal Reserve's Policy Signals Hawkish, Dot Plot Hides Secrets

The Federal Reserve's dot plot releases key signals, with Powell emphasizing that combating inflation remains the top priority, further delaying interest rate cut expectations for the year. From the crypto market's reaction, rising U.S. Treasury yields suppress risk asset valuations. If subsequent policies continue to lean hawkish, the tightening liquidity pressure will create long-term suppression on cryptocurrencies.

2. Escalation of Israel-Iran Conflict, Energy Crisis Transmits to Crypto Market

The military actions between Israel and Iran have significantly escalated, with regional proxy forces fully on alert. Under the shadow of nuclear deterrence, the stability of international energy supply is compromised. Although it has not yet evolved into a full-scale war, the "high-pressure hybrid warfare" model continues to elevate market risk aversion, and the volatility of cryptocurrencies as risk assets is expected to further intensify.

II. Technical Tug-of-War, BTC/ETH Key Levels Become Decisive

▶ BTC: $103,500 Defense Line Repeatedly Contested, Breaking Below May Dive to $95,000

• Daily Level: The price has rebounded multiple times after probing $103,500, facing pressure and retreating after touching the 7-day moving average, overall showing a downward oscillation trend with gradually lower rebound highs. The $103,000 level serves as a key support level for the past month; if it effectively breaks below on the daily level, it may test the $95,000 support in the short term.

• 4-Hour Level: The price is oscillating narrowly between $105,500 and $103,500, with trading volume significantly shrinking, indicating a strong market wait-and-see sentiment. Attention should be paid to a breakout or breakdown of this range to confirm the direction of a new trend.

• Trading Suggestion: Watch for resistance at $105,500-$106,500 above, and support at $103,500-$102,500 below.

▶ ETH: $2,480 Support on the Brink, Breaking $2,650 Opens New Market

• Daily Level: The price remains above the blue trend line, and the recent oscillation is repairing the technical gap formed by the rapid rise in early May. The $2,480 support has been effective for over a month; if it breaks out with volume above the $2,650-$2,680 resistance, it may challenge $3,050; if it falls below $2,480, it may test $2,280-$2,310 in the short term.

• 4-Hour Level: After a recent volume drop, the price is oscillating with reduced volume, indicating insufficient buying interest, and caution is needed for breakdown risks.

• Trading Suggestion: Watch for resistance at $2,540-$2,570 above, and support at $2,480-$2,450 below.

III. Altcoin Rebound Fails to Change Downtrend, Caution Advised While Waiting for Clear Signals

1. Four Conditions Needed for Altcoin Market Strength

• Sector Rotation: Leading altcoins must first break through key resistance levels;

• Volume Support: Daily trading volume must significantly increase during upward movements to confirm real buying interest;

• Capital Inflow: Net buying of stablecoin mainstream trading pairs must remain positive;

• Macro Favorability: U.S. Treasury yields decline, CPI decreases, and the crypto policy environment improves.

2. Current Rebound More Likely a Short-Term Repair Rather Than a Trend Reversal

• Mainstream Coins Not Stabilized: BTC and ETH are still in a downward channel or range-bound oscillation;

• Insufficient Volume: Altcoin rebounds generally show reduced volume, lacking sustained capital inflow;

• Macro Pressure: Rising hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve and the SEC delaying spot ETF approvals;

• Bearish Factors: Recent high percentage unlocks of tokens like ZRO and ZK increase selling pressure.

3. Trading Strategy

Before mainstream coins stabilize, on-chain capital flows back, market confidence is restored, and macro favorable expectations strengthen, it is advisable to remain cautious. A true upward starting point requires multiple signals for confirmation; blindly chasing after price increases may pose significant risks.

Risk Warning: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and the above analysis represents personal views only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should operate cautiously based on their own risk tolerance and strictly manage risk control.

Editor

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