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Yesterday I went out for a while, and after having too much fun outdoors, I simply gave up on updating the market. As a result, when I opened my eyes today, Bitcoin plummeted by 7%. The reason is not complicated; the winds in the Middle East stirred the market sentiment.

Investors began to reassess risks, recalculating everything from safety margins to inflation paths. Consequently, beautiful stocks fell together, and Bitcoin followed suit, while gold and oil surged, with gold jumping 4% in one go.

Who has been saying for a long time that Bitcoin is supposedly digital gold? Why did you lie down first when others' gold and oil were rising? Additionally, there’s no need to delve deeply into Israel and Iran here, as I am not a military channel blogger.

So let's return to the market. Speaking of which, do you think Bitcoin's drop is due to bears showing their power? No, the actual situation is that the spot market has not given the contract market any face at all. During these days of high-level fluctuations, the short liquidity in the contract market piled up frighteningly, as if it were about to explode at any moment.

But the spot market is desperately selling off; no one can save it. If you can't understand this point, don't claim to understand contracts. Many people can only see liquidity but cannot see what lies behind the price.

This wave at the 110K position should have risen, but it couldn't, likely because there were already rats in the warehouse taking the opportunity to sell off. In a market with asymmetric information, if you don't know about the geopolitical crisis in advance, others do; they have already sold off their chips cleanly while still seeing someone shouting for a V-shaped recovery.

Now the bulls that should have cleared have done so almost completely, and the contract market has entered a new state of imbalance. The short leverage is piled too high, the funding rate has turned green, and the open interest is also decreasing.

What’s even more concerning is that the spot premium index is about to break a new high; prices are falling while the spot premium is rising, creating a significant data divergence. If you say it's bearish, the data doesn't support it; if you say it's bullish, the trend has broken.

So the most reasonable strategy in the current situation is one word: wait. If the U.S. stock market opens tonight and the spot market also starts to back down and sell off, causing the premium to drop, then once there’s a rebound, you can short. If the spot market doesn’t cooperate and keeps rising, then don’t short; just watch.

The bulls can rely on two points: one is that the contract open interest is at a new low, indicating that the bull liquidity has been mostly cleared. The other is that the spot premium divergence is too obvious; if geopolitical tensions ease, just relying on short covering could push for a rebound, and at that time, you can run if you can.

As for the bears? If you still have short positions around 90K, don’t say it; this wave has stabilized halfway, and as long as the price makes a lower low, anything around 98K is possible.

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Level Reference:

Second Resistance Level: 106000

First Resistance Level: 104700

Support Level Reference:

Second Support Level: 102700

First Support Level: 101300

Currently, the market is in a downtrend channel. In the short term, pay attention to whether the RSI enters the oversold zone (RSI less than 30) and watch for any hidden bullish divergence, which means that when the price makes a new low, the RSI does not make a new low simultaneously. Once a confirmation signal is established, consider buying in batches at lower prices.

The first resistance at 104700 is a high point formed during multiple declines, representing a strong short-term resistance. To return to higher levels, this position must be broken.

The second resistance around 106K is a dense area of short to medium-term moving averages, providing even stronger resistance. While it may be tested, typically a new round of pullback follows after touching it. Given the current difficulty in retesting 110K, the range of 104–106K can be set as a dense resistance area.

The first support at 102700 corresponds to the midsection of a historical trading volume area and the lower edge of the shadow line, providing effective short-term support. If the RSI is oversold and shows divergence, consider trying to buy low. The second support is the lower edge of the past trading box and is also an important support level. If the RSI confirms a reversal in this area, consider building positions in batches.

6.13 Master’s Wave Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Buy in batches in the 101300-102700 range. Target: 104700-106000

Short Entry Reference: Not currently applicable

If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than making hasty conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot long positions, tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they "catch the top and bottom every time," but in reality, it’s all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, self-coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don’t be blinded by exaggerated data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!

This article is exclusively planned and published by Master Chen (WeChat public account: Coin God Master Chen). If you want to learn more about real-time investment strategies, solutions, spot trading, short, medium, and long-term contract trading techniques, operational skills, and knowledge about candlesticks, you can join Master Chen for learning and communication. A free experience group for fans and community live broadcasts are now available!

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