Author: Imran Lakha

Translated by: Tim, PANews

Bitcoin Stabilizes: Benefiting from Capital Flows, Policies, and Macroeconomic Tailwinds

Bitcoin is once again approaching its all-time high, supported by a return of investor attention and a favorable macro environment.

In April, the spot Bitcoin ETF attracted nearly $3 billion in net inflows, and since May, it has drawn in another $1.6 billion. Data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that leveraged funds have not significantly increased their short positions, indicating that most capital flows are directional bets rather than arbitrage trades.

On the policy front, relevant movements are gaining momentum. New Hampshire has become the first U.S. state to pass a strategic Bitcoin reserve law, with 19 other states also considering similar legislation. Meanwhile, Arizona is advancing legislation in the areas of cryptocurrency custody and strategic reserves.

At the federal level, the Senate blocked the "GENIUS Act," a stablecoin regulatory bill, but the crypto market remains unfazed, with market risk appetite still solid.

The macroeconomic environment is also sending supportive signals. Revisions to Trump's tariff policies are seen as growth-promoting measures, boosting the stock market and the dollar while lowering the prices of gold and the yen, and reducing the likelihood of recession. Market volatility has cooled, with the VIX index currently retreating to its average level over the past 12 months.

In short, Bitcoin is benefiting from three major factors: rising institutional demand, a favorable policy environment, and a warming macro landscape. From a positioning perspective, investors are actively going long.

Bitcoin Transfers Volatility Dominance to Ethereum

Bitcoin's actual volatility has rebounded by about 8 percentage points, breaking back above the $100,000 mark. Ethereum, however, is more eye-catching, with its actual volatility soaring to 90%, and its price jumping 30% in just two days. Bitcoin's short-term implied volatility has slightly decreased, while Ethereum's implied volatility surged by 20 volatility points due to its price fluctuations.

Bitcoin's cost of holding has returned to neutral, but Ethereum's cost of holding has turned deeply negative, with Gamma sellers suffering significant losses.

Bitcoin's upward trend has only once broken through the implied high (at the $100,000 mark), while Ethereum has achieved multiple upward breakthroughs. It seems that Bitcoin has handed over momentum dominance to Ethereum, but whether this situation can be sustained remains to be seen.

Bitcoin's Volatility Term Structure Flattens, Call Option Premiums Reemerge

As the market rebounds, the skew curve flattens, and call option premiums rise.

Bitcoin's volatility skew remains around 2-3 volatility points across the entire term structure, indicating the presence of bullish capital flows betting on price increases, but implied volatility levels are still relatively low.

Ethereum's option volatility skew has shifted downward, showing a mild bearish tendency overall (except for short-term contracts). If Ethereum can maintain its recent gains and effectively break through the $2,800 mark, the market may see a resurgence of sustained buying in call options. At this stage, investors remain cautious.

In the long term, Ethereum still has a gap to close compared to Bitcoin.

Front-End Volatility Spread Widens Sharply

ETH/BTC surged 33% in the past week and is currently testing the key downward trend resistance level of 0.025. As Ethereum has performed exceptionally well in realized volatility, its short-term volatility premium has soared to 35 volatility points.

Meanwhile, its long-term volatility spread remains around 15 volatility points, indicating a muted response, which supports the view that long-term VEGA (volatility risk exposure) may be suitable for selling at current levels.

Despite significant volatility in Ethereum, the volatility skew of short-term option contracts has further tilted towards the premium of put options. This indicates that the options market has not fully recognized this round of upward momentum.

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