Readers often ask in the comments: Is there still a market for altcoins coming up?

I have responded to this question multiple times. I believe that a widespread altcoin bull market is unlikely to be seen again; however, a few valuable projects and coins may still see a resurgence with the rise of a bull market.

This view is merely my own intuitive feeling, without much experience to rely on, nor is there substantial historical data to support it.

Recently, after reading about the investment experiences of a senior investor, I gained a clearer understanding of this intuitive feeling.

This senior investor is a well-known figure on Xueqiu, nicknamed "Retail Investor B." He documented his investment journey in the A-shares market from 2013 to 2023 in real-time on Xueqiu, and then closed his account on December 31, 2023, completely "disappearing" from the online space.

He is a first-generation investor in A-shares, having started investing in 1991, and has experienced various historical changes in the A-shares market, recording its different stages of growth.

Although he closed his account, fortunately, many attentive users on Xueqiu meticulously recorded all his statements and compiled them into a book, allowing me the opportunity to read that history and broaden my horizons.

In his narrative, he vividly described the general bull market and structural bull market in A-shares.

When the A-shares market was just established, there were only a few dozen to a hundred listed stocks.

At that time, no matter what stock you bought, regardless of the price you paid or how badly it fell during subsequent bear markets, as long as the next bull market came, you could recover your losses.

Back then, A-shares was a market where anyone who dared to jump in could "get rich." Because the number of stocks that could be speculated on was so small, when a bull market arrived, after the leading stocks were driven too high, new players could only buy and dared to buy those cheaper stocks. Thus, for a period, A-shares was a market where as long as you could hold onto your stocks, even if you bought junk stocks, you could eventually turn things around and even make money.

The bull markets encountered in A-shares during that time were what we refer to as general bull markets.

Isn't this phenomenon exactly what we saw in the early days of the crypto ecosystem?

Only the retail investors who rushed into A-shares back then have transformed into today's retail investors rushing into the crypto ecosystem—year after year, the flowers are similar, but the people are different.

However, after 2000, especially after 2010, as the A-shares market grew larger, with total market capitalization reaching trillions or even tens of trillions, it became increasingly difficult for general social funds, even institutional funds, to form that kind of general bull market. Even before the stock market crash in 2015, despite the entire society using financing and margin trading, it was still hard to create a situation where junk stocks rose together.

In this context, A-shares have almost never seen a general bull market again, only structural bull markets—where only certain sectors rise while many obscure sectors remain flat.

This phenomenon is not only present in A-shares but also in Hong Kong stocks and U.S. stocks. Especially in the U.S. stock market, during these years of prolonged bull markets, only a few leading and high-performing tech stocks have achieved significant gains, while many stocks have remained stagnant.

Doesn't this closely resemble the situation we see in the crypto ecosystem today?

In this round of market activity, if we exclude the various wildly rising meme coins and look at those old coins, isn't it true that aside from a very few projects that are still building and have value support, the vast majority are basically flat?

Following this line of thought further: among the newly emerged tokens in this round of market activity, how many will have the hope of rising again after this bubble bursts?

I believe the answer is self-evident.

Therefore, we should abandon the fantasy of a general altcoin season, carefully examine the tokens we currently hold, and discard or exchange those we believe have no prospects or certainty, aiming to streamline and simplify as much as possible.

In the future, when we are ready to invest, especially when preparing to invest heavily, we must be cautious and prudent.

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