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After a strong performance in the past two days, the market has once again fallen into a state of fluctuation. Overall, yesterday the market saw a low around 91700, followed by a rebound with a high around 94400. As of now, the coin price is running above 93000. In terms of operations, we also placed an order near the current price yesterday, looking for a pullback after the rebound. However, there has not been a significant pullback yet, and going short has not yielded any profits, so we can only wait for now.
On the chart, yesterday's daily candle closed as a bullish doji star. With the market running at a high level and a bullish doji star forming, it seems there is still some upward momentum. However, after the rise, it is likely to be accompanied by a situation of bullish exhaustion. Therefore, we speculate that if the market makes a topping action next, meaning the peak of this rebound from 75000, we might see a false breakout in the 95000-96000 range, followed by a pullback and fluctuation. If this is not the peak and the market continues to fluctuate upward, it will take a longer time period, possibly leading to a complete loss of market confidence, resulting in the handing over of positions. Currently, the coin price has just crossed above the MA120 daily line. If it subsequently tests support without breaking, the trend may become more apparent. On the technical indicators, the RSI is still in the overbought zone, but the MACD's bullish cycle has not yet started to shrink, making it difficult to confirm the timing of the cycle. From a trend operation perspective, it seems appropriate to look for opportunities to set up low-leverage shorts at high positions, while short-term shorts may be more challenging. For low-leverage short setups, it should be done when a false breakout occurs. Alternatively, another operational approach is to trade the fluctuations in a very short-term manner and wait for a directional move to engage in right-side trading. This depends on individual trading habits, whether to choose left-side or right-side trading.
On the four-hour chart, we initially expected a pullback to occur to repair the market indicators, but currently, the MACD has entered a bearish cycle while the market is fluctuating. This gives us the information that if this wave of expected pullback is completed, and the market enters a bullish phase, the previous high around 94700 may break, but the volume does not follow, forming a top divergence pattern, leading to another pullback. This also confirms our speculation about the daily market, where a false breakout in the 95000-96000 area is expected. Considering today is Friday, if a false breakout occurs successfully in the evening, it is likely to return to around 93000 for fluctuation, lasting until Sunday. Generally, a new trend may emerge on Sunday or early Monday. From a technical structure and market logic perspective, this is more reasonable, provided that external news stimuli are excluded.
In terms of operations, we continued to hold our short positions yesterday. The direct setup for shorting was a bit aggressive. Now we need to consider the issues of position and leverage, to prevent the risk of a false breakout. Therefore, we will adjust our arrangements today, with the primary premise of ensuring position holding. If there is a pullback during the day, we can reduce our positions first, and then set up short positions again during the subsequent rebound, ideally around 95500. A low-leverage short setup is sufficient, with an additional position at 96500, and a stop-loss at 97200, while not setting a target for the low-leverage short.
Ethereum provided an entry point at 1785 yesterday, similar to Bitcoin, with a pullback leading to a reduction in positions. We can consider setting up low-leverage shorts again above 1860.
【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article is subject to review and publication, and market changes in real-time may lead to information lag, making strategies not timely. Specific operations should follow real-time strategies. Feel free to contact us for discussions on the market.】
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