Master Discusses Hot Topics:

In recent days, the market's fundamentals, technicals, and sentiment have all become irrelevant; it all depends on what Chuanzi says. On the technical side, divergences, oversold conditions, and major moving average supports seem to be signaling a rebound, right?

I wanted to short at a small level on the rise, waiting for a second probe to enter steadily. But as soon as Chuanzi opened his mouth, it directly reversed, and BTC surged 10% in a flash, breaking my defense. Yesterday morning, I calmed down and wrote a bunch of market analyses, but I didn’t send them; why?

Because with Chuanzi around, any analysis is futile; the market is entirely swayed by his words. Everyone has seen the tariff situation; the pressure Chuanzi puts on the market has already skewed the risk market. The panic index broke 60 yesterday afternoon, and the volatility expectations are the same as the past two years.

The last time it was this high was in August 2024, at 65.73, and before that, it was during the economic recession in March 2020, when the V-shaped panic index reached 85. If it hits 50, the US stock market is basically considered a bear market. What’s more frustrating is that the tariffs are not over yet, and there are GDP data waiting at the end of the month.

So April is really tough, not because the market is one-sided, but because there are too many events and too much uncertainty. Even thinking about trading makes me anxious, fearing that Chuanzi’s words will ruin my plans.

Back to Bitcoin, I believe this wave of decline is not over. The area around 74460 yesterday afternoon was just a consolidation, and after a brief rebound at the hourly level today to tomorrow, it will have to go down again. The monthly line is about to form a death cross; in fact, I mentioned earlier that the bull market has ended, but I didn’t want to dampen everyone’s spirits too early.

Strictly speaking, the bull market in the first half of the year is definitely over. After the interest rate cut in June, there will be a wave of rebound in the third quarter, and a gradual upward rebound on the daily line is inevitable, but after reaching the peak, it will enter a deep bear market next year.

This also aligns with Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle; I feel this cycle hasn’t broken yet, just that the market has changed a bit. If the Bitcoin monthly line shows three consecutive bearish candles, May must close bullish; otherwise, it will be disastrous.

If May can close bullish, then Bitcoin must stand at 88.5 to 89.6K. Otherwise, if it continues to close bearish, the next major correction could drop to 73 to 66K.

So, if we can get through April, May might be a bit better. But if everyone sees a rebound and shouts that the bull market is back, that would be too naive. The market is like this now; we can only respond to the situation as it comes.

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Levels Reference:

First Resistance Level: 83100

Second Resistance Level: 81400

Support Levels Reference:

First Support Level: 78500

Second Support Level: 77000

Today's Suggestions:

The first resistance level at 81.4K is the previous low point of support, so it must be broken to expect a consolidation of the bullish trend. Currently, since it is a rebound from a low point, this is also a strong resistance. The second resistance is in the area where the moving averages are narrowing, so a short-term adjustment will occur.

The first support level will also be broken as volatility increases, so buying in batches around 77K to 78.5K is a more suitable strategy for the ultra-short term.

Since the K-line with a significant increase in trading volume yesterday is the current bottom, the V-shaped rebound indicates that maintaining the first and second support during the adjustment will also help raise the low point.

In today’s trading, due to the significant trading volume at the bottom, the short-term bottom is only temporarily formed. If the K-line closes with a higher low during the adjustment, then consider entering an ultra-short-term rebound strategy.

4.8 Master’s Wave Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Not currently referenced

Short Entry Reference: Light short in the range of 81400-82400, Target: 80000-78500-77000

This article is exclusively planned and published by Master Chen (WeChat public account: Coin God Master Chen). Master Chen is the same name across the internet. For more real-time investment strategies, solutions, spot trading, short, medium, and long-term contract trading techniques, operational skills, and knowledge about K-lines, you can join Master Chen for learning and communication. A free experience group for fans has been opened, along with community live broadcasts and other quality experience projects!

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